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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。9 q2 ~& a4 b* F! ~9 x4 y
% D1 f0 e* v7 n1 ?, { {5 o$ B$ I% sGM Overview
$ w1 x8 c. }7 o. ^# q7 C7 e• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs% |8 M8 J7 z' L: ]# [% g$ n* @0 ?7 q1 L
• Objectives$ N3 A4 i& b/ i2 I$ E, o
– What do we “WANT” to do?( g7 l! }1 {" j( ^
• External Analysis
: K' o. @2 l- m! F1 x/ k– What do we “NEED” to do?
# N- D9 B' ~* `' U+ I q* i* }– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade% [" i3 Q" t1 d- N' B
• opportunities & threats
5 w. }7 g2 E4 Y' g$ A* T– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs
. T( {9 V) @8 A! p7 q$ Y• Internal Analysis5 Z0 R% }! J: j" @
– What “CAN” we do?
+ Z3 u+ D: f. \– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR3 i' m3 r) S, I( I6 }" @: |' ^7 S9 L% T
• abilities, strengths & weaknesses. F+ I# { f0 P/ e# H1 F
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES
8 @ `; w9 Q% _0 o) ]' Z6 s" ~/ X3 O F
• Alternative Evaluation
$ p0 G$ u6 s ^( s) c/ ]; A4 P– What are the options?8 Z' e2 I4 Y) [6 b% U, Z, [1 }9 J
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options) D- p5 e- m% N0 G8 \4 B+ J6 @
– How does this option “FIT”?9 l8 E0 t O& Y& t; ` i, j
– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
. A$ D2 G8 ^/ i5 z1 b– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”) " Z, h2 ? O3 A$ Q
7 u; E2 n6 ]! g9 d; ?& f- f( O• Decision
# {4 T% o# C- i& w0 A– Justify why you chose a particular option(s)., k5 X6 V4 e. v! |+ i7 f8 A3 J. X
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING
- j" m0 o( E, _& p3 m/ ?• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?" G) n0 Q5 a, z
• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?4 I! P8 g; ^& ], h, W
• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?4 M" d! o" M4 {4 A; i
• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)
' B' }2 ^) _; S* _• Why NOT the other options?8 t+ o- v9 R% x; ?" l2 U" g0 E
• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes
' o- D4 P3 ~% ]" R/ Pneed to be made? A: p5 m2 g. a, C7 y, Q
, {! q$ ^* A% X N• Action Plan
2 \% f. u) i' ]; e• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;; m6 [ M U3 X+ Q3 `) k$ X
– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your
1 i/ i$ Z+ s# ~% V3 |decision$ X( Y, c% i2 Z; Z. i8 |+ @6 ^+ V' W
– details about timing
+ }5 [' h* v/ B, v( A- R– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’$ s, B' v: Y$ M" d
– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)
, U9 i/ `, k$ d– make sure to consider both the short term and long term
7 P. j! K0 J5 d- F$ O) V5 E& N
R `9 G- T, Z) q7 q( F! @. b# VFirm Valuation+ r1 \& X, J9 G; N/ g
• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
( K x. K# S6 ~/ }: M; Z• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
. b- J9 a K c; s" r– Net Book Value) L, j3 t; }% l* T
– Economic Appraisal$ W# s1 ^' @" O9 V3 [" O% u
– Capitalization of Earnings- H" J( P3 o. s F
• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the" _; f A+ _, A3 a r
company is worth.
/ F9 d- h' S9 C% ?4 [& u4 n+ D• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???
) T/ \+ d: ?6 T1 n9 q
' k7 W a Q+ s7 e0 H& e" U% u) [0 m Net Book Value (NBV)
( M# O7 R7 x! d4 c1 d$ b– Total Assets - Total Liabilities0 \! I& `0 } c4 X
• a.k.a.. the equity
( t( e* q9 p. i! a– Does not account for the present market value of the assets) ^& `) _: Z8 y8 x. w: w
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet
6 V8 K j0 P5 Q6 p, E3 L& ]– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business! l8 [2 y: u( x9 N6 ]. j, W
6 r( O% |: h, U Economic Appraisal (EA)
- I! X- {/ }. H! H1 W– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
& B! m2 E( m4 w. ]1 Z– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
8 O' u; \6 b8 l– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets
% d l, _6 W% z7 Q6 L- z: Z" K$ ^* |$ }6 B
Capitalization of Earnings (CE)
" U/ P, I- {# v" \* g6 |– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S! ?3 V$ V4 C6 n
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.
& P$ }' u& N6 l– NPAT * P/E ratio = value
! T F7 V' C! X' H" H– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)
4 {) P: l f' \9 I9 F7 t' q1 g• Assuming changes (projected statement)
0 L" i, X! P( E4 q• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)
4 b! F* X! @8 B+ C4 {2 Y– Select a reasonable P/E multiple0 H0 p' L V4 o5 p' S* C
– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)
: o' g8 u6 `: F8 d8 G5 m( R8 u, S
• P/E Multiple
% D( S1 a. o8 V h– Rules of thumb;
# z% j! A* I. r7 R P4 ^: f* I8 l• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples" G: y, L( r8 |9 @9 M
from 5 to 15.
/ L2 h2 a. Z8 [• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.
4 y0 K5 C& O0 X" A• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”1 A- q Y6 N' p2 Z
– growth increases a multiple
! e% ]0 _4 `4 y! g$ y– risk decreases a multiple
$ B2 f) I5 [+ G% g3 ?9 q _% ^7 g
Their Associated Ratios; v' s* i& f" f: K0 |" M6 d' O
• Profitability;
# s) q7 \% w! g7 @7 r, }– Business goal - to make $$# E( [; P) j- c: R' ~' `! I
– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales
3 E& A. E9 B9 D1 Z: v L/ i• Stability;
. i" v" A. y" N% F' u' e$ |) Q– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)
. w1 D ]" x) h- `% z– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts
: K6 u) i/ }: m' R: D" Y- h3 t' b$ X
5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios
9 N1 {, O' s9 |: d • Liquidity;
) ~4 M1 D6 R' ~– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations
# p' j9 H/ x g6 K4 E1 x– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm: Y! B }; r( q3 f0 H5 v
obligations)8 C- E. u% M8 I
• Efficiency;
9 Y" D' v+ v6 J$ v9 O: N) ?' n– Business goal - to efficiently use assets- |: `0 n! D4 Q% i+ @9 h
– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments
: g! T- Z0 {; I8 j f& o% |: t9 U% D
• Growth;: n! o% Q/ S8 R
– Business goal - to increase in size
& s3 D4 B2 c7 e* v# a– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth0 o$ y) z6 S6 f, z( p) x
* B' A% r% [/ ~0 s
Interpreting the Ratios
" M1 H$ x' R* A7 R+ N* M• Profitability;! B. F% h5 |4 ]( R
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)4 l# n3 h# A2 t5 _0 j x+ }
I/S items * 100 = %
9 a2 q% L1 x7 G1 ?! J, R" v/ b' Z* T Sales4 M" ]0 g; T' B ^6 L
• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales
/ z- {6 N3 C8 A% ~( U7 {– Return on Investment/Equity
% H1 @1 Q9 Q1 ]* N# xProfit ATB4D = %
4 n5 f# ?) p. ZAverage Equity
( j, s" @2 i) _! B& ~[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]
% I( \: L! l) j0 l6 p# u' o* j• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners2 E! {: E* }; O9 @9 m7 R
; b% A) F6 G$ J' _. O$ X3 u4 v• Stability;: d1 ~5 V" T5 V
– Net Worth: Total Assets
# \' F; p) s- d+ C3 u) P S2 Y2 cTotal Equity = % * I X# W ^& B) ?; Q. [. p
Total Assets6 n2 J; |0 M$ Y6 j( [- B! q2 E
• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money% g! q: P/ m. p' X0 q$ t9 V
– Debt to Assets
& D6 F$ W' L' K+ o" rTotal Debt = % 5 O h- m6 M# e0 S
Total Assets5 R1 m: `. }. a) f, G
• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt
* K D- N1 m' W: c– Interest Coverage& M+ Q3 F9 Z( i: D& w' k
EBIT = # times
# X. ?* t+ `7 jInterest Expense2 }# Y( `& q) d! G
• tells us how many times we can pay interest
1 |: _, t! [' @6 j' B8 ?5 S8 a* V/ m* U7 Y& ~
• Liquidity;
4 B6 i! o, c) v0 L. S9 ~% ]' {– Current Ratio
! A2 G& `& R& f9 h: I5 YCurrent Assets = X:19 T4 j- w. [$ W, R- ~0 C p
Current Liabilities
" h7 c, l5 n5 D4 l5 ~• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts
0 V: D+ ?. q6 G" u- a, w9 ]. |0 ORULE OF THUMB: 2:1" v o& C$ G- h' L1 \; J. Y
– Acid Test
O1 P) E0 J5 i0 @9 s+ T( Y# t$ D. FCash + M/S + A/R = X:16 F4 P E! u, c5 G) m
Current Liabilities, S8 D d, m0 }! Z* Z) o2 T& @5 L2 @% W
• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us# }: ~. k7 O( @0 h) }" {
RULE OF THUMB: 1:1
4 J: w E [$ u: x: y1 U" R- j( m4 H
– Working Capital
7 ^. ^: p/ t# A. ~* [) KC.A - C.L = $X2 t% p" u0 m7 U. ^3 g
• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid% c* ]0 w% F+ ^# B
: z+ ~, x, q) O
Efficiency;
, o# }$ u$ ^( Q4 ^– Age of Receivables
: L9 }: {4 Z2 hAccounts Receivabl = # Days5 y5 c' _4 e3 z3 C2 P* g S
(Sales / 365)
. U# `, K0 q4 ~% k/ d• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$
) Y3 P& J1 N% \( e; m p
+ h# \( O6 a1 Y$ g- A– Age Of Payables( ^5 v _4 T- ]7 W& q
Accounts Payable = # Days
+ X% k+ X) F! ~: s( \/ q- w* i# Q(Purchases* / 365)
& |# l) K; Z8 q$ ^5 q0 k( Q w• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
- T2 ]9 W$ R3 ^5 f! ?$ {
. x: a7 P0 U5 B2 d" D1 p2 k– Age of Inventory
C2 R; X1 p4 S& C/ n Inventory = # Days
! {5 k* N f/ D; L* I(COGS / 365)
- I3 Q+ j, o4 e4 H% W3 M• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse5 p, j. F8 F% E% g+ t( X- L2 y
9 l5 C8 `2 J0 H4 ^7 F+ ]; k• Growth;
0 i+ H5 r9 r4 L' c– Sales
4 M$ B! Q7 c6 ~– Net Income
. K/ ?: V5 h" b9 M9 f1 C– Total Assets
$ x( G3 Q+ i& _$ A' ?– Equity* \' a; G$ {! g# z4 E* @ J0 u
Yr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %4 `/ E. j7 L! s
Yr. 1, f3 k9 _7 z1 W2 N, L! Q
• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)6 d2 [& J+ n3 |
) r% \3 D. h U! j' h# VUnderstanding Ratios
- t% ]& X4 ?" U5 b; V7 B: Z3 E• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”
: o5 z- c1 V+ o• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio
8 N, w& _" ?" C8 Q I, h• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”
3 m) n! y# S9 R- A2 s– Which number caused the change?
; r) t2 ?( \/ d: r; u– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time." N* g* O( d8 Z; p( u
– Will these trends continue?' Y8 Q' G- t7 _1 y
– How does the company compare to the industry?; b1 e( m6 j; U3 [4 [! C* o1 O
0 G( Y0 h8 _, F* C l' l! a" I+ a
Classifying Costs& F- C( K5 A* g% h9 h* l# U4 r
• Variable Costs
/ {5 {3 J4 r6 ~( {2 N1 {– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume) G: J/ n, j# k" D# X3 f2 p
• Fixed Costs
% J7 e" P$ w- R0 R+ y% `8 X5 F– cost that does not vary with volume |
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